Mountainwatch.com Meteorologist Aaron Cook puts his neck on the line and has made a prediction about what the 2010 Australian snow season may look like.
As he says, “the truth is, forecasting snow more than one week ahead is really hard to do and any weather forecast that isn’t straight up about how much uncertainty there is at this time of year just shouldn’t be trusted”.
This winter, conditions are forecast to be neutral (neither El Nino or La Nina) as last year’s El Nino dies off in a similar fashion to 1995 and 1983.
In spite of a long list of caveats, he does make the following suggestion about how the season might shape up: “If I had to make a call, I would say we’ll see 10 to 15cm of snow later this week and a few more minor falls throughout May. However the ground is still too warm for the snow to hang around. I’m going to stick my neck out and predict: First big dump of snow will be around June 10. The snow depth at Spencers Creek (above the Charlottes Pass Ski Village) will hit 1 metre about July 3, and will peak at 160 cm this winter”.
The full version of his report, which explains all the difficulties of making a long range assessment is well worth a read.